JD Vance’s name is gaining attention early for the 2028 Republican presidential race. Political analyst Chris Cillizza recently warned Democrats that underestimating the vice president could be risky. Early polling suggests Vance is leading the GOP field by a significant margin, and grassroots conservatives are showing strong enthusiasm, particularly at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. Even with three years to go, these early numbers are notable.
An Emerson College poll released last week found Vance with 46% favorability, higher than many well-known Republicans and Democrats. Cillizza highlighted this on X, pointing to Vance’s appeal across the political spectrum. During a YouTube livestream, he expressed optimism, cautioning Democrats not to ignore Vance’s growing strength. CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten also noted Vance’s 40% lead in early GOP nomination surveys, emphasizing that no other contender comes close. Historical trends support this momentum: since 1980, early frontrunners have won their party’s nomination about 63% of the time. At AmericaFest in Phoenix, Turning Point USA held a straw poll where Vance received an overwhelming 84.2% support, far ahead of Marco Rubio (4.8%), Ron DeSantis (2.9%), and Donald Trump Jr. (1.8%). Blake Neff, producer of the “Charlie Kirk Show,” pointed out that Vance’s performance even surpassed Trump’s 2024 straw poll result of 82.6%. The energy from the crowd reflected genuine enthusiasm, as Vance closed the event as the final speaker.
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vance, describing him as “my husband’s friend” and urging attendees to help elect him in 2028. The endorsement signals strong organizational backing, which could be decisive in Republican primaries. Despite the buzz, Vance remains focused on the 2026 midterms. On Fox News’ “Hannity,” he emphasized that he will discuss any future run only after those elections. Still, he has used public appearances to critique potential Democratic rivals, highlighting issues like rolling blackouts, border policy, and gang violence, while predicting Democrats may nominate Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris. With three years until the election, Vance’s early momentum is significant. Name recognition and party loyalty typically favor sitting vice presidents, and his combination of polls and grassroots support gives Republicans reason for optimism. Democrats face the challenge of addressing his rising profile now to avoid falling behind. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has yet to endorse a candidate, meaning future shifts in the GOP field remain possible.
